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Finding Leverage

Here's where things get exciting. You've learned to see systems. You can draw CLDs, recognize archetypes, and dig for root causes. But seeing problems clearly—while essential—doesn't automatically mean you can fix them. Now we discover your superpower.

The superpower is this: in complex systems, you don't need brute force. You don't need unlimited money, political power, or a massive army of activists. What you need is leverage—finding those special places where a small push produces a big change. It's like the difference between trying to push a car uphill versus releasing the parking brake and giving it a gentle nudge downhill.

This chapter is about becoming a leverage detective. We'll learn to spot where systems are most vulnerable to positive change, why some interventions fizzle while others transform entire industries, and how clever activists and reformers have used leverage throughout history. Along the way, we'll also examine why markets fail, how power really works, and what the most harmful industries have in common.

Get ready to think like a systems strategist.

The Leverage Mindset: Working Smarter, Not Harder

Before we dive into frameworks and case studies, let's establish the right mindset. Most people approach big problems with what we might call "brute force thinking":

  • Problem: Climate change is caused by fossil fuels
  • Brute force solution: Ban all fossil fuels immediately!

This approach, while emotionally satisfying, usually fails. It ignores system dynamics, triggers fierce resistance, and creates collateral damage that undermines the goal. Leverage thinking is different:

  • Problem: Climate change is caused by fossil fuels
  • Leverage approach: What makes fossil fuels so entrenched? What feedback loops keep them dominant? Where are the weak points in those loops?
Approach Effort Required Resistance Generated Likelihood of Success
Brute force Massive Extreme Low
Leverage thinking Strategic Manageable Much higher

The Judo Principle

In judo, a smaller person can defeat a larger opponent by using the opponent's own momentum against them. Leverage thinking works the same way—we look for places where the system's own dynamics can be redirected toward positive outcomes.

Donella Meadows' 12 Leverage Points: Your Field Guide

Donella Meadows was a brilliant systems thinker who, after decades of studying complex systems, identified twelve places where you can intervene to change system behavior. She ranked them from least to most effective, and her framework remains the gold standard for strategic intervention design.

Think of these twelve points as a ladder. The bottom rungs (12-10) are easy to reach but don't get you very high. The top rungs (4-1) are harder to climb but offer transformative views. Smart change-makers learn to use the whole ladder strategically.

Diagram: Leverage Points Ladder

Run the Leverage Iceberg MicroSim Fullscreen

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<summary>Interactive Leverage Points Ladder Visualization</summary>
Type: infographic

Purpose: Visualize the 12 leverage points as a ladder from shallow to deep intervention

Bloom Level: Understand (L2) - Students grasp the hierarchy of intervention effectiveness

Learning Objective: Students will understand why some interventions are more powerful than others and recognize the tradeoff between accessibility and impact

Layout: Vertical ladder with 12 rungs, each labeled with leverage point

Visual elements:
- Ladder graphic with rungs clearly visible
- Left side: "Easier to reach" at bottom, "Harder to reach" at top
- Right side: "Lower impact" at bottom, "Higher impact" at top
- Color gradient: Light blue at bottom transitioning to deep blue/purple at top
- Icons for each level representing the type of intervention

Ladder rungs (bottom to top):
12. Constants, Numbers, Subsidies (icon: calculator)
11. Material Stocks and Flows (icon: warehouse/pipeline)
10. Regulating Negative Feedback (icon: stop sign)
9. Driving Positive Feedback (icon: rocket/growth arrow)
8. Information Flows (icon: network/broadcast)
7. Rules of the System (icon: gavel/rulebook)
6. Power to Self-Organize (icon: connected people)
5. Goals of the System (icon: target)
4. Mental Models/Paradigms (icon: brain/lightbulb)
3. Transcending Paradigms (icon: infinity/clouds)

Interactive elements:
- Hover over each rung to see: description, examples, typical actors
- Click rung to expand detailed case study
- Color-coded zones: "Shallow" (12-10), "Medium" (9-7), "Deep" (6-4), "Transcendent" (3-1)

Example hover content for Level 8 (Information Flows):
- Description: "Changing who has access to information when making decisions"
- Example: "Requiring calorie counts on restaurant menus"
- Typical actors: "Journalists, researchers, whistleblowers, regulators"

Visual style: Modern, clean infographic with clear visual hierarchy
Color scheme: Blue gradient from light (shallow) to deep purple (transformative)

Implementation: HTML/CSS/JavaScript with SVG ladder graphic

The Shallow Interventions (Levels 12-10): Easy to Do, Limited Impact

These are the interventions politicians love because they're visible and don't threaten powerful interests too much. They're useful—but limited.

Level 12: Constants, Numbers, Subsidies

What it is: Tweaking the quantitative elements without changing system structure.

Examples:

  • Setting a carbon tax rate
  • Raising the minimum wage by $2
  • Limiting prescription opioid quantities
  • Capping CEO pay ratios

Why it's low leverage: Numbers are symptoms, not causes. Change them, and the system often finds workarounds. Set a carbon price? Companies might just pass costs to consumers without changing behavior. Cap opioid prescriptions? People may turn to illegal alternatives.

When it's useful: Creating immediate relief while working on deeper changes, meeting political demands for "action," and buying time.

Level 11: Material Stocks and Flows

What it is: Changing the physical capacity or infrastructure of the system.

Examples:

  • Building renewable energy plants
  • Expanding public transit
  • Training more factory inspectors
  • Creating recycling facilities

Why still limited: Physical changes are slow, expensive, and don't address why the system behaves badly in the first place.

Level 10: Regulating Negative Feedback Loops

What it is: Creating constraints that prevent the worst outcomes.

Examples:

  • Environmental protection laws
  • Antitrust enforcement
  • Safety regulations
  • Truth-in-advertising requirements

Why more effective: Regulations can set boundaries that change competitive dynamics. If everyone has to meet safety standards, no one gains advantage by cutting corners.

Regulation Success: Vehicle Safety Standards

Before mandatory safety regulations, car companies competed on style and speed, not safety. Regulations requiring seatbelts, airbags, and crash testing created a level playing field where safety improvements became competitive advantages rather than costs. Deaths per mile driven dropped 80% over 50 years.

The Medium Interventions (Levels 9-7): Changing How the Game is Played

These interventions start to address structure rather than just symptoms.

Level 9: Driving Positive Feedback Loops

What it is: Accelerating beneficial self-reinforcing processes.

Examples:

  • Renewable energy feed-in tariffs (solar adoption breeds more solar adoption)
  • Tax incentives for electric vehicles
  • Premium pricing for sustainable products
  • Research funding that builds on itself

Why it works: You're harnessing the system's own momentum rather than fighting against it. Once a positive feedback loop gets going, it can become unstoppable.

Level 8: Information Flows

What it is: Changing who knows what, when they know it, and how they can act on it.

Why it's powerful: Information is power. Changing information flows can dramatically alter decisions without changing formal structures.

Information Intervention Example Impact
Disclosure requirements Calorie counts on menus Reduced average calories ordered by 6%
Transparency mandates Conflict mineral reporting Shifted supply chain practices
Real-time feedback Smart meters showing energy use Reduced consumption 5-15%
Whistleblower protections SEC bounties for fraud tips Massive increase in reported violations

The Feedback Loop Connection: Many information interventions work by creating feedback loops that didn't exist before. When consumers can see a product's carbon footprint, their purchase decisions become feedback to producers. When executives must disclose their compensation, public scrutiny becomes feedback on their behavior.

Level 7: Rules of the System

What it is: Changing the formal and informal rules that define how actors behave.

Why high impact: Rules define what's possible, what's rewarded, and what's punished. Change the rules, change the game.

Types of rules:

  • Constitutional: Fundamental organizing principles (corporate purpose, property rights)
  • Legal: Laws and regulations
  • Economic: Market rules, pricing mechanisms, ownership structures
  • Social: Norms, customs, expectations
  • Organizational: Policies, procedures, incentive structures

Example: Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)

Traditional rule: Manufacturers can externalize disposal costs to society.

New rule: Manufacturers must fund the recycling/disposal of their products.

Impact: Suddenly, design for recyclability becomes profitable. Products get simpler, materials get standardized, and waste decreases—all without micromanaging how companies operate.

The Deep Interventions (Levels 6-4): Changing Who Plays and Why

Now we're getting to the transformative stuff. These interventions don't just change the game—they change who gets to design the game and what winning means.

Level 6: Power to Self-Organize System Structure

What it is: Changing who makes the rules and how rule-making works.

Why highly effective: This is power over power. It determines who gets to define purpose, rules, and structure.

Forms:

  • Worker representation on corporate boards
  • Community ownership of resources
  • Open-source governance models
  • Democratic control over public goods
  • Indigenous sovereignty over traditional lands

Example: Community Land Trusts

Traditional structure: Land is owned by investors seeking maximum return.

Changed structure: Land is owned by a democratic community trust that balances affordability, sustainability, and community benefit.

Impact: Housing remains affordable across generations, community priorities shape development, and the "Success to the Successful" archetype is disrupted.

Level 5: Goals of the System

What it is: Changing what the system is trying to achieve.

Why transformational: A system's purpose determines its structure and behavior. Change the purpose, transform everything.

Old Goal New Goal System Transformation
Maximize shareholder value Optimize stakeholder wellbeing Different metrics, decisions, investments
Grow GDP Increase genuine progress Different policies, priorities, success measures
Treat disease Promote wellness Preventive focus, different funding, different research
Maximum crop yield Ecosystem health Regenerative practices, biodiversity, long-term thinking

Level 4: Mental Models and Paradigms

What it is: Changing the shared beliefs and assumptions that create the system.

Why most powerful: Mental models determine how we see the world, what we think is possible, and what solutions we can imagine. They're the source code of culture.

Common paradigm shifts needed:

  • From "nature as resource" to "nature as partner"
  • From "more is better" to "enough is plenty"
  • From "winner take all" to "rising tides lift all boats"
  • From "efficiency at all costs" to "resilience and redundancy"
  • From "short-term returns" to "seven-generation thinking"

Paradigm Change is Hard

Paradigms are deeply embedded and defended. They're "the way things are" to most people. Changing them requires persistence, storytelling, demonstration projects, and often generational turnover. But when paradigms shift, everything shifts with them.

MicroSim: Leverage Point Intervention Simulator

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<summary>Leverage Point Intervention Simulator</summary>
Type: microsim

Learning Objective: Students will experience how interventions at different leverage points produce different outcomes over time (Bloom Level: Apply/Analyze - L3/L4)

Canvas layout:
- Left panel (300x600): Industry selection and leverage point controls
- Center area (400x600): Animated system visualization
- Right panel (200x600): Metrics dashboard

Industries to simulate:
1. Fast Fashion (default)
2. Fossil Fuels
3. Ultra-Processed Foods
4. Social Media

For each industry, model key stocks and flows:
- Fast Fashion example:
  - Stocks: Environmental damage, Consumer demand, Industry profits, Worker welfare
  - Flows: Production rate, Waste generation, Consumer awareness, Regulatory pressure

Intervention controls:
- Slider for each leverage point level (12 through 4)
- Each slider represents investment/effort in that type of intervention
- Total "effort budget" is limited (forces tradeoffs)

Leverage point interventions modeled:
- Level 12 (Numbers): Price caps, quotas
- Level 10 (Regulation): Waste limits, labor standards
- Level 8 (Information): Transparency requirements, labeling
- Level 7 (Rules): Extended producer responsibility
- Level 5 (Goals): From growth to sustainability metrics
- Level 4 (Paradigms): Consumer mindset shift

Visualization:
- Animated flow diagram showing system response
- Stocks represented as filling/emptying containers
- Flows shown as animated arrows (thickness = rate)
- Color coding: Red (harmful), Yellow (neutral), Green (beneficial)

Metrics dashboard:
- Environmental harm index (0-100)
- Social welfare index (0-100)
- Industry stability index (0-100)
- Time to significant change (years)

Simulation behavior:
- Run simulation over 20 simulated years
- Show how different intervention mixes produce different trajectories
- Demonstrate that lower leverage interventions show quick but limited effects
- Higher leverage interventions show delayed but transformative effects

Interactive controls:
- "Run Simulation" button
- Speed slider (slow/medium/fast)
- "Reset" button
- "Compare Scenarios" toggle (run two strategies side by side)

Default parameters:
- Start with Fast Fashion industry
- All interventions at zero
- 20-year simulation horizon

Implementation: p5.js with stock-and-flow animation

Why Markets Fail: Understanding the Battlefield

Before we can apply leverage effectively, we need to understand why markets—which are supposed to efficiently allocate resources—so often produce harmful outcomes. Markets fail for predictable, systemic reasons, and each type of failure suggests different intervention strategies.

Information Asymmetry: When Someone Knows More

The problem: One party to a transaction has information the other doesn't, enabling exploitation.

Classic examples:

  • Used car sellers know about hidden problems; buyers don't
  • Pharmaceutical companies know about drug side effects; patients don't
  • Employers know workplace hazards; job applicants don't
  • Social media companies know how their algorithms work; users don't

Why it matters for harmful industries: Information asymmetry is the business model for many harmful industries. Tobacco companies knew about cancer risks for decades. Fossil fuel companies knew about climate change. Opioid manufacturers knew about addiction rates. In each case, hiding information was profitable.

Leverage implication: Information flow interventions (Level 8) directly attack this failure mode.

Externalities: Costs Someone Else Pays

The problem: The price of a product doesn't include all the costs of producing and using it.

How it works:

  • Factory pollutes air → Neighbors get sick → Factory doesn't pay medical bills
  • Fast fashion dumps clothes → Environment degrades → Society pays for cleanup
  • Social media creates addiction → Users suffer → Platform profits
Product Price Paid Hidden Costs Who Pays Hidden Costs
Pack of cigarettes $8 $35 in healthcare, productivity loss Taxpayers, families, smokers themselves
Gallon of gasoline $3.50 $6 in climate, health, military costs Future generations, vulnerable communities
Fast food meal $7 $12 in health, environmental costs Healthcare system, ecosystems

Leverage implication: Externality pricing (Level 12), regulation (Level 10), and rules changes (Level 7) can force costs back onto producers.

Regulatory Capture: When the Cops Work for the Robbers

The problem: Regulatory agencies, created to protect the public, become dominated by the industries they're supposed to regulate.

How it happens:

  1. Industry has concentrated interest and resources; public has diffuse interest
  2. Industry hires experts who end up in regulatory agencies (or vice versa)
  3. Industry funds lobbying, campaigns, and research that shapes policy
  4. Regulators depend on industry for information and expertise
  5. Regulatory agencies start serving industry interests over public interests

The Revolving Door:

  • FDA official → Pharmaceutical company executive → FDA advisor
  • EPA regulator → Oil company lobbyist → EPA administrator
  • SEC lawyer → Wall Street partner → SEC commissioner

Leverage implication: Power redistribution (Level 6) and rule changes (Level 7) that increase transparency and limit conflicts of interest.

Diagram: Regulatory Capture Cycle

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<summary>Regulatory Capture Reinforcing Loop</summary>
Type: diagram

Purpose: Show how regulatory capture becomes a self-reinforcing cycle

Bloom Level: Analyze (L4) - Students understand the feedback dynamics of capture

Learning Objective: Students will recognize regulatory capture as a system archetype (Success to the Successful) and identify intervention points

Components:
- Industry Profits (stock)
- Lobbying Budget (flow from profits)
- Political Influence (stock)
- Favorable Regulations (outcome)
- Regulatory Agency (entity)
- Public Interest (eroding goal)

Loops:
1. Reinforcing Loop R1 (labeled "Capture Cycle"):
   - Industry Profits → More Lobbying Budget → More Political Influence → More Favorable Regulations → More Industry Profits

2. Reinforcing Loop R2 (labeled "Revolving Door"):
   - Industry Profits → Higher Industry Salaries → Attract Regulators → Industry-Friendly Regulation → Higher Industry Profits

3. Balancing Loop B1 (labeled "Public Pushback" - often weak):
   - Harmful Regulations → Public Harm → Public Outrage → Political Pressure → Less Harmful Regulations
   - Note: This loop has LONG DELAYS and often loses to R1

Intervention points marked:
- "Transparency requirements" between Lobbying and Political Influence
- "Cooling off periods" on Revolving Door
- "Public funding of campaigns" breaking lobbying-influence link
- "Citizen oversight boards" strengthening B1

Visual style: CLD with clear R/B notation
Color scheme: Red for capture dynamics, green for public interest, blue for intervention points

Implementation: Static CLD with annotations

Collective Action Problems: The Tragedy Continues

Remember the Tragedy of the Commons from Chapter 5? That's a specific case of a broader category: collective action problems.

The core challenge: When benefits are individual but costs are shared, everyone has incentive to free ride—and everyone loses.

Game Theory Perspective:

The Prisoner's Dilemma captures this perfectly:

  • If we both cooperate, we both win
  • If I defect while you cooperate, I win big and you lose big
  • If we both defect, we both lose

The problem? Rational individual strategy is to defect. But if everyone follows that logic, everyone defects, and everyone loses.

Nash Equilibrium: The stable point where no player can improve their outcome by unilaterally changing strategy—even if that point is terrible for everyone.

Examples in harmful industries:

  • Overfishing: Each fleet's rational choice is to fish more, even as stocks collapse
  • Pollution: Each company's rational choice is to pollute, even as everyone breathes worse air
  • Tax avoidance: Each company's rational choice is to minimize taxes, even as public services crumble

Leverage implication: Changing the rules (Level 7) and changing information flows (Level 8) can alter the payoff matrix and shift Nash equilibria toward cooperative outcomes.

MicroSim: Prisoner's Dilemma Industry Game

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<summary>Interactive Prisoner's Dilemma for Industry Competition</summary>
Type: microsim

Learning Objective: Students will experience how game theory dynamics create collective action problems and explore how rule changes can shift equilibria (Bloom Level: Apply/Analyze - L3/L4)

Canvas layout:
- Top area (600x200): Game setup and scenario description
- Center area (600x250): Interactive game grid and decision interface
- Bottom area (600x150): Results, scores, and Nash equilibrium indicator

Scenario options:
1. Fishing Industry: Cooperate (sustainable fishing) vs Defect (overfishing)
2. Pollution: Cooperate (pollution controls) vs Defect (dump freely)
3. Advertising: Cooperate (truthful ads) vs Defect (misleading claims)
4. Labor: Cooperate (fair wages) vs Defect (exploit workers)

Payoff matrix display (example for fishing):
- Both Cooperate: Both get 3 (sustainable profits, healthy stocks)
- Player Cooperates, AI Defects: Player gets 0, AI gets 5
- Player Defects, AI Cooperates: Player gets 5, AI gets 0
- Both Defect: Both get 1 (depleted stocks, everyone struggles)

Game modes:
1. Single round (experience the dilemma)
2. Repeated game (10 rounds, see how strategies evolve)
3. Repeated with reputation (past behavior visible)
4. Repeated with regulation (rule changes alter payoffs)

Interactive elements:
- Click "Cooperate" or "Defect" buttons
- See AI's choice revealed
- Watch cumulative scores update
- View Nash equilibrium highlighted in payoff matrix

Rule change experiments:
- Toggle "Transparency" (past moves visible to all)
- Toggle "Regulation" (defection incurs penalty)
- Toggle "Communication" (can signal intentions)
- Observe how equilibrium shifts

Scoreboard:
- Player cumulative score
- AI cumulative score
- Industry total (combined welfare)
- Nash equilibrium indicator (star on current cell)

AI behavior options:
- "Tit for Tat" (cooperates first, then mirrors player)
- "Always Defect" (ruthless competitor)
- "Random" (unpredictable)
- "Generous Tit for Tat" (occasionally forgives defection)

Implementation: p5.js with grid display and click interaction

Power Dynamics: Who Really Controls What?

Understanding leverage requires understanding power. Not all stakeholders are created equal—some can make things happen, others can only watch.

Stakeholder Analysis: Mapping the Players

Before designing interventions, you need to know who's on the field:

Key questions:

  • Who benefits from the current system?
  • Who is harmed?
  • Who has the power to change it?
  • Who would resist change?
  • Who could be allies?

Diagram: Stakeholder Power-Interest Grid

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<summary>Interactive Stakeholder Mapping Tool</summary>
Type: infographic

Purpose: Help students map stakeholders by power and interest to identify strategic priorities

Bloom Level: Analyze/Evaluate (L4/L5) - Students assess stakeholder positions and prioritize engagement

Learning Objective: Students will systematically analyze stakeholder landscapes and develop engagement strategies

Layout: 2x2 grid with Power (vertical axis) and Interest (horizontal axis)

Quadrants:
1. High Power, High Interest (top right): "Key Players"
   - Color: Red
   - Strategy: "Engage closely, manage relationship"

2. High Power, Low Interest (top left): "Context Setters"
   - Color: Orange
   - Strategy: "Keep satisfied, increase interest"

3. Low Power, High Interest (bottom right): "Potential Allies"
   - Color: Blue
   - Strategy: "Keep informed, build coalition"

4. Low Power, Low Interest (bottom left): "Minimal Attention"
   - Color: Gray
   - Strategy: "Monitor, don't over-invest"

Interactive elements:
- Dropdown to select industry (Tobacco, Fossil Fuels, Fast Fashion, etc.)
- Pre-populated stakeholder icons appear on grid
- Hover over icon to see stakeholder description and current position
- Drag icons to explore "what if" scenarios
- Add custom stakeholders

Pre-loaded stakeholders for Fossil Fuels:
- Oil companies (High Power, Low Interest in change)
- Auto manufacturers (High Power, Mixed Interest)
- Renewable energy companies (Medium Power, High Interest)
- Environmental NGOs (Low Power, High Interest)
- Workers in fossil fuel industry (Medium Power, Mixed Interest)
- Affected communities (Low Power, High Interest)
- Investors (High Power, Shifting Interest)
- Insurance companies (High Power, Increasing Interest)
- Government regulators (High Power, Variable Interest)
- General public (Low-Medium Power, Low-Medium Interest)

Additional features:
- "Power shift" arrows showing how stakeholder positions might change
- Coalition connection lines between potential allies
- Conflict indicators between opposing stakeholders

Implementation: HTML/CSS/JavaScript with draggable elements

The Tactics of Industry Resistance

Harmful industries don't just sit back when change threatens their profits. They fight back using a consistent playbook:

Manufactured Doubt: Create confusion about scientific consensus.

  • Tobacco: "We need more research on the cancer link"
  • Fossil fuels: "The climate science isn't settled"
  • Sugar industry: "The obesity research is contradictory"

Front Groups and Astroturfing: Create fake grassroots organizations.

  • "Citizens for Sound Science" (funded by tobacco)
  • "Americans for Prosperity" (funded by fossil fuels)
  • "Center for Consumer Freedom" (funded by food/alcohol industry)

Greenwashing: Create appearance of responsibility without substance.

  • "Clean coal"
  • Carbon offset programs with dubious effectiveness
  • "Sustainable" fashion collections representing 1% of production

Revolving Door: Place allies in regulatory positions.

  • Industry executives become agency heads
  • Regulators leave for lucrative industry jobs
  • Creates culture of accommodation

Industry Lobbying and Political Influence:

Industry Annual US Lobbying Spend Political Donations (2020 cycle)
Pharmaceuticals $380 million $92 million
Oil & Gas $125 million $139 million
Insurance $160 million $65 million
Tech $70 million $100 million

Leverage implication: Understanding these tactics helps you anticipate resistance and design interventions that are harder to capture, co-opt, or evade.

Naming the Game

When you can identify tactics like "manufactured doubt" or "astroturfing," you've taken away some of their power. These tactics rely on appearing organic and reasonable. Naming them exposes the strategy.

Industry Case Studies: Patterns of Harm and Paths to Change

Now let's apply our leverage thinking to real industries. We'll examine both how these industries create harm and where the leverage points are for transformation.

Case Study 1: Tobacco Industry

The Harm Profile:

  • 8 million deaths annually worldwide
  • $2 trillion in global economic costs
  • Addiction designed into the product
  • Decades of deliberate deception

What Worked: A Leverage Success Story

The tobacco control movement is one of the most successful public health campaigns in history. US smoking rates dropped from 42% (1965) to 12.5% (2020). Here's how leverage points were used:

Leverage Level Intervention Impact
8 (Information) Surgeon General's warnings, required labels Awareness increased
8 (Information) Internal document disclosure (litigation) Exposed decades of lies
7 (Rules) Advertising bans, especially to youth Reduced recruitment of new smokers
7 (Rules) Smoking bans in public places Denormalized smoking
7 (Rules) Heavy taxation Reduced consumption, especially among youth
6 (Power) Master Settlement Agreement Shifted resources to prevention
4 (Paradigm) From "glamorous" to "deadly" Cultural shift

Key Insight: The campaign worked at multiple levels simultaneously. Information disclosure (Level 8) changed the public narrative, which enabled rule changes (Level 7), which accelerated paradigm shift (Level 4).

Case Study 2: Fossil Fuel Industry

The Harm Profile:

  • 8 million deaths annually from air pollution
  • Climate change threatening civilization
  • Trillions in unpriced externalities
  • Entrenched political and economic power

Current Leverage Landscape:

Leverage Level Current Interventions Status
12 (Numbers) Carbon pricing Patchy, often too low
11 (Capacity) Renewable energy build-out Accelerating rapidly
10 (Regulation) Emission standards Inconsistent, under attack
9 (Positive Feedback) Solar/EV cost curves Working! Costs plummeting
8 (Information) Climate disclosure requirements Growing momentum
7 (Rules) Fossil fuel subsidy elimination Politically difficult
6 (Power) Community energy ownership Emerging
5 (Goals) From growth to sustainability Nascent
4 (Paradigm) Energy abundance vs. scarcity Shifting

The Promising Signs:

  • Solar and wind are now cheaper than fossil fuels in most places (Level 9 feedback loops)
  • Young people overwhelmingly support climate action (generational paradigm shift)
  • Investors increasingly see stranded asset risk (information changing behavior)
  • Technology is enabling distributed energy (power redistribution)

Case Study 3: Ultra-Processed Foods

The Harm Profile:

  • 11 million diet-related deaths annually
  • Obesity and diabetes epidemics
  • Products engineered for overconsumption
  • Heavy marketing to children

Leverage Opportunities:

Leverage Level Potential Intervention Feasibility
12 (Numbers) Sugar taxes Proven effective (Mexico, UK)
10 (Regulation) Marketing restrictions to children Growing precedent
8 (Information) Front-of-package warning labels High impact, spreading globally
8 (Information) School nutrition education Long-term investment
7 (Rules) Remove subsidies for commodity crops Politically difficult
5 (Goals) From cheap calories to nourishment Requires cultural shift
4 (Paradigm) From "food as fuel" to "food as medicine" Emerging

Case Study 4: Social Media

The Harm Profile:

  • Attention extraction and addiction
  • Mental health impacts, especially on youth
  • Misinformation and polarization
  • Privacy violations and manipulation

Leverage Analysis:

Leverage Level Potential Intervention Current Status
10 (Regulation) Data privacy regulations (GDPR) Spreading globally
10 (Regulation) Age verification requirements Debated
8 (Information) Algorithm transparency Minimal but growing
8 (Information) Researcher access to data Resisted by platforms
7 (Rules) Platform liability for content Contentious
7 (Rules) Data portability requirements Emerging
7 (Rules) Interoperability mandates Discussed
6 (Power) Alternative ownership models Emerging (Mastodon, etc.)
5 (Goals) From engagement to wellbeing Minimal

The Challenge: Social media platforms have unprecedented power to shape the information environment. Their business model (attention = advertising revenue) is fundamentally misaligned with user wellbeing. Shallow interventions (Level 10-12) may not be sufficient.

MicroSim: Industry Transformation Strategy Builder

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<summary>Interactive Strategy Builder for Industry Transformation</summary>
Type: microsim

Learning Objective: Students will design multi-level intervention strategies for industry transformation and evaluate tradeoffs (Bloom Level: Create/Evaluate - L5/L6)

Canvas layout:
- Left panel (250x600): Industry selection and background info
- Center area (450x600): Strategy builder workspace
- Right panel (200x600): Strategy assessment dashboard

Industries available:
1. Tobacco (with historical data to compare against)
2. Fossil Fuels
3. Ultra-Processed Foods
4. Social Media
5. Fast Fashion
6. Pharmaceutical Industry
7. Industrial Agriculture
8. Gambling Industry

Strategy builder features:
- 12 slots representing leverage point levels
- Drag and drop specific interventions into slots
- Each intervention has: name, cost, timeline, resistance level, impact estimate
- Limited "political capital" budget forces tradeoffs
- Color coding shows feasibility (green/yellow/red)

Example interventions for Fast Fashion:
- Level 12: Garment import quotas
- Level 12: Minimum price floors
- Level 10: Textile waste limits
- Level 10: Labor standards enforcement
- Level 8: Supply chain disclosure
- Level 8: True cost labeling
- Level 7: Extended producer responsibility
- Level 7: Right to repair laws
- Level 6: Worker ownership incentives
- Level 5: Circular economy metrics
- Level 4: "Slow fashion" cultural campaign

Assessment dashboard:
- Impact timeline chart (showing effects over 1, 5, 10, 20 years)
- Resistance heat map (which stakeholders oppose which interventions)
- Synergy indicators (which interventions strengthen each other)
- Resource requirements (money, political capital, time)
- Overall transformation score

Comparison feature:
- Save and name strategies
- Compare multiple strategies side by side
- See how tobacco transformation actually unfolded (reference case)

Interactive controls:
- Drag interventions into strategy slots
- Adjust intervention intensity sliders
- "Calculate Impact" button
- "Reset Strategy" button
- "Share Strategy" export function

Implementation: p5.js with drag-and-drop and calculation logic

Cross-Industry Patterns: What They Have in Common

After analyzing multiple harmful industries, clear patterns emerge:

Common Tactics:

Tactic Tobacco Fossil Fuels Processed Food Social Media
Manufactured doubt Yes Yes Yes Emerging
Capture regulators Yes Yes Yes Yes
Target vulnerable populations Youth Poor communities Children Youth
Externalize costs Health system Climate, health Health system Mental health
Create addiction Nicotine N/A (but lock-in) Sugar/salt Dopamine loops
Lobby heavily Yes Yes Yes Yes
Greenwash "Light" cigarettes "Clean" energy "Healthy" options "Well-being" features

Common Vulnerabilities:

  • All depend on information asymmetry (Level 8 interventions work)
  • All benefit from externalized costs (Level 7 rule changes work)
  • All resist transparency (information disclosure is threatening)
  • All have internal contradictions (employees, scientists who know the truth)
  • All face generational attitude shifts (paradigms are changing)

Industry Accountability: The Universal Playbook

Once you've seen how tobacco was transformed, you have a template. Ask: What information needs to be disclosed? What rules need to change? What paradigm shift is needed? How can power be redistributed? The specifics differ, but the strategic logic transfers.

Systemic Drivers of Harm: Beyond Individual Industries

While analyzing harmful industries is valuable, some critics argue that focusing only on industries misses deeper, structural forces that enable and amplify harm across all sectors. These "systemic drivers" operate at a meta-level—they're not industries themselves, but rather economic logics, ideological frameworks, and governance failures that shape how industries behave.

Understanding these drivers doesn't replace industry-level analysis; it complements it by revealing higher-leverage intervention points.

Leverage Point Levels

Throughout this section, we reference Donella Meadows' 12 Leverage Points framework introduced earlier in this chapter. The levels range from shallow interventions (Level 12: tweaking numbers) to deep interventions (Level 4: changing paradigms). Higher numbers = easier but less effective; lower numbers = harder but transformative.

Extractive Capitalism

What it is: An economic orientation focused exclusively on extracting maximum short-term profit, which is then funneled to owners and executives rather than reinvested in workers, communities, or sustainability.

How it drives harm:

  • Externalization imperative: When profit is the sole metric, companies are incentivized to push costs onto others (workers, communities, environment)
  • Short-termism: Quarterly earnings pressure discourages long-term investments in safety, sustainability, or worker wellbeing
  • Wealth concentration: Extracted profits flow to a shrinking pool of owners, undermining the consumer base and democratic governance
  • Financialization: When making money from money becomes more profitable than making useful goods, productive investment declines

Industries most affected: For-profit healthcare and insurance, private equity-owned companies, payday lending, private prisons—anywhere the "product" is vulnerable people.

Leverage implications: This operates at Level 5 (Goals) and Level 4 (Paradigms). Changing individual industry rules (Level 7) without addressing extractive logic may simply shift harmful practices elsewhere. Deeper interventions include:

  • Stakeholder governance requirements (Level 6)
  • Fiduciary duty reform to include non-shareholder interests (Level 7)
  • Alternative ownership models: cooperatives, employee ownership, community ownership (Level 6)
  • Mission-lock structures like B-Corps and benefit corporations (Level 5)

Fundamentalism: Religious and Political Absolutism

What it is: Ideological frameworks—whether religious or political—that claim absolute certainty and reject compromise, evidence, or democratic deliberation.

How it drives harm:

  • Policy paralysis: When positions are non-negotiable, evidence-based harm reduction becomes impossible
  • Science denial: Climate denial, vaccine hesitancy, and rejection of public health measures often have fundamentalist roots
  • In-group/out-group dynamics: Fundamentalist frameworks often dehumanize those outside the group
  • Democratic erosion: Absolutist thinking is incompatible with democratic give-and-take

Where it appears: Climate policy obstruction, resistance to harm reduction for drug use, opposition to evidence-based sex education, rejection of regulatory frameworks as "government overreach."

Leverage implications: This operates at Level 4 (Paradigms) and is extremely resistant to lower-level interventions. Strategies include:

  • Finding values alignment: Identify shared values (stewardship, community care) that can bridge ideological divides
  • Messenger credibility: Voices from within fundamentalist communities carry more weight than outside critics
  • Narrative reframing: Present ethical action in terms compatible with existing worldviews
  • Long-term cultural work: Education, exposure, and generational change

Distinguishing Critique from Attack

Identifying fundamentalism as a systemic driver of harm is not an attack on religious faith or political conviction per se. Many religious and political traditions contain profound ethical resources. The critique targets absolutism—the refusal to engage with evidence, dialogue, or democratic process—not sincere belief.

Government Dysfunction and Regulatory Failure

What it is: The systematic failure of government institutions to serve public interest, whether through capture, corruption, bureaucratic ossification, or ideological sabotage.

How it drives harm:

  • Regulatory capture: Agencies meant to protect the public instead serve industry interests (discussed earlier in this chapter)
  • Enforcement gaps: Laws exist but aren't enforced due to underfunding or political interference
  • Bureaucratic inertia: Systems designed for past problems fail to address emerging harms
  • Intentional sabotage: Ideological opposition to regulation leads to deliberate weakening of protective agencies

Where it appears: Environmental protection failures, financial regulation gaps, workplace safety lapses, public health system weaknesses.

Leverage implications: This operates at multiple levels simultaneously:

  • Level 7 (Rules): Strengthen conflict-of-interest rules, revolving door restrictions
  • Level 6 (Power): Increase citizen oversight, strengthen whistleblower protections
  • Level 8 (Information): Transparency requirements for lobbying and regulatory decisions
  • Level 5 (Goals): Redefine agency success metrics around public outcomes rather than industry satisfaction

The Interaction Effect

These systemic drivers don't operate in isolation—they reinforce each other:

Driver A Driver B Interaction
Extractive capitalism Government dysfunction Industry captures regulators to protect extraction
Fundamentalism Extractive capitalism Religious frameworks justify economic inequality
Government dysfunction Fundamentalism Ideological opposition weakens regulatory capacity
All three Create conditions where harmful industries flourish

Strategic implication: Addressing any one driver may be undermined by the others. The most effective strategies work on multiple drivers simultaneously, just as they work at multiple leverage levels.

Reflection: Which systemic driver most enables the industry you're studying?

Think about the harmful industry you've been analyzing. Which of these systemic drivers—extractive capitalism, fundamentalism, or government dysfunction—most enables its harmful practices? How might addressing that driver change the industry's behavior?

Finding Your Leverage: A Practical Framework

Now let's bring this all together into a practical framework you can use to find leverage in any system you want to change.

Step 1: Map the System

Before intervening, understand:

  • What are the key stocks and flows?
  • What feedback loops drive behavior?
  • What archetypes are operating?
  • Who are the stakeholders and what power do they have?

Step 2: Identify Current Intervention Points

What changes are already being attempted? At what leverage levels? How effective are they?

Step 3: Look for Leverage Gaps

Where are the under-explored opportunities? Often, everyone focuses on the same level (usually 10-12) while higher leverage points are ignored.

Step 4: Assess Your Resources

What do you have to work with?

  • Money? (useful for infrastructure, litigation, campaigns)
  • Political access? (useful for rule changes)
  • Expertise? (useful for information interventions)
  • Organizing capacity? (useful for power redistribution)
  • Cultural influence? (useful for paradigm shifts)

Step 5: Design Multi-Level Strategy

The most effective transformations work at multiple levels simultaneously:

  • Immediate actions (Levels 10-12): Create urgency, buy time, build momentum
  • Medium-term strategies (Levels 7-9): Change rules, shift information, accelerate positive loops
  • Long-term vision (Levels 4-6): Shift power, redefine goals, transform paradigms

Step 6: Anticipate Resistance

How will incumbents fight back? Design your interventions to be resistant to:

  • Capture (make them transparent and distributed)
  • Evasion (close loopholes in advance)
  • Delay (create ratchets that prevent backsliding)
  • Narrative war (have your story ready)
Reflection: What leverage points could you reach?

Think about an issue you care about. What resources do you personally have access to? What level of the leverage ladder could you realistically operate at? Even if you can only work at Level 12 (numbers), you might be able to support others working at higher levels.

Learning Outcomes

By completing this chapter, you should be able to:

  • Apply Donella Meadows' 12 leverage points framework to analyze intervention opportunities in any system

  • Explain why markets fail (information asymmetry, externalities, collective action problems, regulatory capture) and identify which leverage points address each failure mode

  • Analyze stakeholder power dynamics and design engagement strategies for different quadrants

  • Recognize common industry resistance tactics (manufactured doubt, astroturfing, greenwashing, revolving door) and design interventions that are harder to capture

  • Evaluate the effectiveness of interventions across multiple industries and identify cross-industry patterns

  • Design multi-level intervention strategies that work at shallow, medium, and deep leverage points simultaneously

Self-Assessment: Name the leverage level. A regulation requires food companies to list added sugar content on package labels.

This is Level 8 (Information Flows). The intervention changes who has access to information (consumers now know about added sugar) without changing the rules about what can be sold or how products are made.

Self-Assessment: What market failure does this represent? A chemical company's factory pollutes a river, causing health problems downstream, but the company doesn't pay for medical costs.

This is a classic externality problem. The company externalizes costs (pollution damage, healthcare) to third parties (downstream communities, public health system) rather than including them in the product price.

Self-Assessment: What leverage level is this intervention? A new law requires that half of a company's board of directors be elected by workers.

This is Level 6 (Power to Self-Organize System Structure). It changes who makes decisions about the company's rules and purpose—workers now have structural power they didn't have before.

Summary: Your Systems Thinking Superpower

You now have something most people lack: a strategic framework for thinking about change. When you see a problem, you don't just see the problem—you see the system that produces it. You see the feedback loops, the archetypes, the power dynamics. And you see the leverage points where small, well-placed efforts can produce large, lasting change.

This is your superpower. Use it wisely.

Remember the key principles:

  1. Think leverage, not force. Ask where the system is most susceptible to redirection, not where you can push hardest.

  2. Work at multiple levels. The most successful transformations combine immediate actions with long-term vision.

  3. Understand resistance. Incumbents will fight. Design interventions that are hard to capture, evade, or delay.

  4. Find your contribution. You don't have to work at every level yourself. Find where your resources and skills can contribute to a larger multi-level strategy.

  5. Be patient but persistent. Deep leverage points take time to shift but produce lasting change. Don't give up on paradigm change just because it's slow.

In the next chapter, we'll turn this strategic thinking into concrete action—designing advocacy campaigns, building coalitions, and applying behavioral economics to create change.

The world is full of problems that seem too big to solve. But they're all systems. And systems have leverage points. Now you know how to find them.


Concepts Covered in This Chapter

This chapter covers the following 42 concepts from the learning graph:

Market Failure Concepts (MRKT)

  1. Market Failures
  2. Information Asymmetry
  3. Externality Pricing
  4. Regulatory Capture
  5. Industry Lobbying
  6. Greenwashing
  7. Misleading Marketing
  8. Power Dynamics
  9. Stakeholder Analysis
  10. Game Theory
  11. Prisoner's Dilemma
  12. Nash Equilibrium
  13. Collective Action Problems
  14. Free Rider Problem
  15. Coordination Failures

Industry Case Study Concepts (CASE)

  1. Tobacco Industry Case
  2. Fossil Fuel Industry Case
  3. Ultra-Processed Foods Case
  4. Social Media Case
  5. Fast Fashion Case
  6. Pharmaceutical Industry Case
  7. Gambling Industry Case
  8. Industrial Agriculture Case
  9. Firearms Industry Case
  10. Alcohol Industry Case
  11. Private Prison Case
  12. Payday Lending Case
  13. Arms Industry Case
  14. Chemical Industry Case
  15. Mining Industry Case
  16. Pesticide Industry Case
  17. Industry Comparison
  18. Cross-Industry Patterns
  19. Industry Accountability
  20. Deceptive Practices
  21. Science Denial
  22. Manufactured Doubt
  23. Astroturfing
  24. Front Groups
  25. Revolving Door
  26. Corporate Lobbying
  27. Political Influence

Prerequisites

This chapter builds on concepts from: