Systems Thinking
Chapter Overview
- Origin of Systems Thinking
- Systems Diagrams
- Nonlinear Feedback
- Unintended Consequences
- Edge of Chaos
Origin of Systems Thinking
Systems Diagrams
Nonlinear Feedback
Unintended Consequences
Edge of Chaos
Stuart Kauffman has studied mathematical models of evolving systems in which the rate of evolution is maximized near the edge of chaos.
Archetypes
The Eight Systems Archetypes:
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Addiction – where an agent becomes dependent on an external intervenor, or a crutch. Over time, the agent’s will is eroded and cannot function without the intervenor. (examples: government subsidies, worshipping “gurus”, free health insurance).
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Eroding Goals – where an agent’s failure to reach its goals causes it to set lower and lower goals over time. (examples: politicians revising their original “promises”, failed exercise goals).
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Escalation – where competing agents one-up each other causing a snowball effect in behavior. Sometimes the desire to beat competitors distracts each agent from pursuing its own unique vision. (examples: competitive price wars, feuds, terrorism).
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Limits to Growth – where a once successfully growing system hits a resource limit that constrains its future growth. (examples: market saturation, populations reaching carrying capacities)
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Policy Resistance – where the actors of a system find ways to work around rules or regulations imposed on them in order to achieve their goals. (examples: black markets, tax loopholes)
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Seeking the Wrong Goal – where an agent pursues a goal that is not aligned with its vision. This wrong goal might be self-selected or incentivized by an authority. (examples: incentives that reward quantity and ignoring quality, confusing number of degrees held for intelligence, pursuing monetary wealth at the expense of all else).
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1. Exponential Success – where success today leads to further success in the future. (examples: rich get richer, network effects)
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Tragedy of the Commons – where multiple agents, behaving in their self interest, escalate actions that deplete a shared resource and over time leads to the resource’s extinction. (examples: overfishing, traffic jams).