Bin counts (synthetic data)
Forecast bin
Learners
Mean forecast
Observed
Your diagnosis:
Overconfident
Underconfident
Well calibrated
Read the curve and the counts, then choose.
Scenario:
model parameters match the simulation
true guess rate 0.35, model assumes 0.20
true guess rate 0.20, model assumes 0.35
Number of bins:
5
Cohort size:
200
Redraw cohort
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