Appendix A - Claims

Appendix A: Overly Optimistic Claims of Quantum Computing

Disclaimer

All claims below are documented from public sources. Inclusion does not imply dishonesty — many were made in good faith. The pattern, however, is instructive.

Year	Claimant	Claim	What Actually Happened
2007	Geordie Rose, D-Wave	"We've built the world's first commercial quantum computer"	Device was a quantum annealer; no evidence of quantum speedup over classical computers was established for years
2011	D-Wave / Lockheed Martin	Sale of D-Wave One implies commercial viability	System was used for research, not production; no commercial quantum advantage demonstrated
2013	Various	Google/NASA D-Wave purchase signals imminent breakthrough	Independent benchmarks showed no quantum speedup; debate continued for years about whether the device was truly quantum
2017	IBM	"In 5 years, quantum computing will be mainstream"	By 2022, IBM had revised its roadmap multiple times; no mainstream applications materialized
2019	Google / Hartmut Neven	"Quantum supremacy" achieved	Task had no commercial value; IBM showed a classical supercomputer could do it in 2.5 days, not 10,000 years
2020	Multiple startups	"Quantum advantage for drug discovery by 2023-2024"	No quantum advantage in drug discovery demonstrated as of 2025
2020	IBM	Roadmap to 1,000+ qubits by 2023 and quantum advantage by 2025	1,121-qubit Condor chip built (2023) but with error rates too high for useful computation; quantum advantage not achieved
2021	IonQ (IPO filing)	"Broad quantum advantage" by 2025	No broad quantum advantage demonstrated; stock declined significantly from IPO price
2022	McKinsey & Co.	Quantum computing could create \(450B-\)850B in value by 2035	Based on optimistic assumptions about hardware progress that have not materialized
2023	Various VC firms	"Quantum computing is where AI was in 2012"	Misleading analogy: AI in 2012 had working hardware and clear commercial applications; quantum computing has neither