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Chapters

This textbook is organized into 17 chapters covering 241 concepts.

Chapter Overview

  1. What Is Quantum Computing? - A minimal technical primer covering qubits, superposition, entanglement, measurement, and the theoretical promise versus reality of quantum computing.
  2. Quantum Algorithms and Their Real-World Limits - Covers Shor's and Grover's algorithms, quantum supremacy versus quantum advantage, contrived benchmarks, and why classical computers keep pace.
  3. A History of Quantum Computing Promises - Traces the full timeline from Feynman's 1981 conjecture through 2025, revealing the persistent "3-5 years away" pattern.
  4. The Catalog of Overly Optimistic Claims - Documents exaggerated claims from D-Wave, Google, IBM, startups, consultants, and media, plus historical parallels.
  5. The Physics Barriers and Hardware Platforms - Covers decoherence, error rates, cryogenics, connectivity, infrastructure costs, and all five hardware platforms.
  6. Can Quantum Computers Break Encryption? - Examines the cryptography threat claim, massive qubit requirements, and why post-quantum cryptography is already closing the window.
  7. What Is a General Purpose Technology? - Defines GPT characteristics, examines historical examples, and shows why quantum computing fails every GPT test.
  8. Investment Risk Analysis - Covers ROI, risk-adjusted returns, expected value frameworks, the $100B+ invested with zero revenue, and cost analysis.
  9. Company Case Studies and Exit Analysis - Examines IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave financials, SPAC risks, exit strategy problems, and when to cut losses.
  10. Technology Assessment Frameworks - Covers Technology Readiness Levels, adoption curves, Gartner Hype Cycle, forecasting, and technology bubble dynamics.
  11. Cognitive Biases in Quantum Computing Investment - Examines the psychological biases that sustain quantum computing investment despite absent returns.
  12. Expert Skeptics, Ethics, and Careers - Presents skeptic arguments, incentive asymmetries, PhD career risks, and ethical questions about quantum computing education.
  13. Systems Thinking and Causal Loop Diagrams - Applies systems dynamics to model the reinforcing feedback loops that perpetuate quantum computing investment.
  14. Better Alternatives to Quantum Computing - Examines quantum sensing, quantum key distribution, and classical AI hardware as investments with better risk-adjusted returns.
  15. Historical Parallels and Lessons - Compares successful and failed physics-based technology investments to identify what distinguishes viable technologies from hype.
  16. The Breakthroughs Required for Viability - Catalogs the 10+ simultaneous breakthroughs needed and analyzes why joint probability makes viability extremely unlikely.
  17. Critical Thinking and Practical Application - Teaches hype detection, press release analysis, and applies these skills to executive briefs, red team analyses, and investment decisions.

How to Use This Textbook

Chapters are sequenced so that each builds on concepts from earlier chapters. The first five chapters establish the technical foundations and physics barriers, while chapters 6-11 examine the economic and psychological dimensions. Chapters 12-17 synthesize these perspectives into practical tools for evaluating technology claims and making better investment decisions.

Note: Each chapter includes a list of concepts covered. Make sure to complete prerequisites before moving to advanced chapters.