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References: Investment Risk Analysis

  1. Net present value - Wikipedia - Explains the NPV framework for evaluating investments over time using discount rates, the core analytical tool this chapter applies to show why quantum computing's long time horizon destroys investment returns.

  2. Sunk cost - Wikipedia - Defines the sunk cost fallacy and its role in perpetuating uneconomic investments, directly relevant to this chapter's analysis of why $100 billion in quantum computing spending should not justify further investment.

  3. Opportunity cost - Wikipedia - Explains why the true cost of an investment includes forgone returns from alternatives, central to this chapter's argument that quantum computing capital could generate better returns in classical computing and AI.

  4. Principles of Corporate Finance (13th Edition, 2020) - Richard A. Brealey, Stewart C. Myers, and Franklin Allen - McGraw Hill - Standard graduate text on investment analysis including ROI, NPV, risk-adjusted returns, and capital allocation, providing the financial frameworks applied to quantum computing in this chapter.

  5. Venture Deals: Be Smarter Than Your Lawyer and Venture Capitalist (4th Edition, 2019) - Brad Feld and Jason Mendelson - Wiley - Covers venture capital fund structures, SPAC mechanics, and startup valuation methods relevant to this chapter's analysis of how VC funding frenzies inflated quantum computing valuations.

  6. Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects (2019) - National Academies of Sciences - Provides independent assessment of quantum computing timelines and resource requirements that inform the expected value calculations and probability estimates used in this chapter.

  7. Global Quantum Computing Market Analysis - Boston Consulting Group (2024) - Industry market projection for quantum computing revenues, providing one of the optimistic forecast scenarios that this chapter subjects to NPV and expected value analysis.

  8. Quantum Technology Monitor - McKinsey & Company (2024) - Tracks quantum computing investment flows versus revenue generation, providing data supporting this chapter's central finding of $100B+ invested against zero commercial returns.

  9. The Quantum Computing Bubble - Sankar Das Sarma, arXiv (2024) - Physicist's analysis comparing quantum computing investment patterns to historical technology bubbles, supporting this chapter's argument that the investment-to-revenue gap signals a speculative bubble.

  10. Quantum Computing Revenue and Funding Tracker - PitchBook (2024) - Venture capital data tracking quantum computing startup funding rounds, SPAC valuations, and revenue figures, providing the empirical financial data that underlies this chapter's ROI calculations.