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References: Technology Assessment Frameworks

  1. Technology readiness level - Wikipedia - Explains NASA's TRL scale from basic principles to operational deployment, the primary framework this chapter uses to assess quantum computing's maturity at TRL 2-3 despite billions in investment.

  2. Hype cycle - Wikipedia - Describes Gartner's model of technology adoption phases including the peak of inflated expectations and trough of disillusionment, which this chapter maps to quantum computing's current trajectory.

  3. Dot-com bubble - Wikipedia - Documents the 1990s technology investment bubble, its formation dynamics, and collapse, providing the historical parallel this chapter draws to quantum computing's investment patterns and valuation disconnects.

  4. Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers (3rd Edition, 2014) - Geoffrey A. Moore - Harper Business - Defines the adoption chasm between early adopters and mainstream market, a framework this chapter applies to show why quantum computing cannot cross to commercial viability without fault tolerance.

  5. Diffusion of Innovations (5th Edition, 2003) - Everett M. Rogers - Free Press - The foundational work on technology adoption curves and adopter categories, providing theoretical context for this chapter's analysis of where quantum computing sits on the adoption lifecycle.

  6. Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies - Gartner Research - Official methodology description for the hype cycle framework, relevant to this chapter's placement of quantum computing in the disillusionment phase and analysis of what comes next.

  7. NASA Technology Readiness Assessment Best Practices Guide - NASA - Original source for the TRL framework with detailed criteria for each level, supporting this chapter's rigorous assessment of quantum computing at TRL 2-3 and the evidence against TRL 4.

  8. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Tetlock and Gardner, Research Summary - Philip Tetlock's research on prediction accuracy and base rate reasoning, relevant to this chapter's analysis of why technology forecasters systematically overpredict quantum computing timelines.

  9. Base Rate of Technology Commercialization - RAND Corporation - Analysis of historical success rates for technologies transitioning from laboratory to market, providing the base rate data this chapter uses to estimate quantum computing's probability of commercial viability.

  10. Identifying the Decline of Technology Paradigms - Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2018) - Academic framework for recognizing when technology improvement trajectories plateau, relevant to this chapter's analysis of the science-to-engineering gap and bubble dynamics in quantum computing.