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Concept List

A numbered list of concepts for the learning graph of "A Skeptic's Guide to Quantum Computing."

Designed for an audience of investors, policymakers, economists, and students without deep physics backgrounds. Technical concepts are simplified to plain-language barriers. The emphasis is on economic viability, investment risk, psychology, and clear thinking.

What Is Quantum Computing? (Plain Language)

  1. Classical Computing
  2. What Is a Qubit
  3. Superposition Explained
  4. Entanglement Explained
  5. Quantum Measurement Problem
  6. Theoretical Promise of QC
  7. What QC Could Supposedly Do
  8. What QC Cannot Do
  9. QC vs Classical Computing

Why It Doesn't Work Yet

  1. Decoherence Problem
  2. Qubits Are Extremely Fragile
  3. Error Rate Problem
  4. Error Correction Overhead
  5. 1000 Physical per 1 Logical
  6. Million Qubit Requirement
  7. Engineering vs Physics Barrier
  8. No Platform Has Solved It
  9. Cryogenic Cooling Requirement
  10. Near Absolute Zero Temps
  11. Cryogenic Cost and Scale
  12. Wiring and Control Problem
  13. Energy Consumption Problem
  14. Infrastructure Cost
  15. Hardware Scaling Wall
  16. Connectivity Limitations

Competing Hardware Approaches

  1. Superconducting Approach
  2. Trapped Ion Approach
  3. Photonic Approach
  4. Topological Approach
  5. Neutral Atom Approach
  6. Platform Comparison
  7. Each Platform Has Fatal Flaws

The Algorithms That Justify It

  1. Shor's Factoring Algorithm
  2. Grover's Search Algorithm
  3. Quantum Supremacy Defined
  4. Quantum Advantage Defined
  5. Contrived Benchmarks
  6. No Real-World Advantage Yet
  7. Narrow Problem Applicability
  8. Classical Computers Keep Up

History: A Pattern of Broken Promises

  1. Feynman's 1981 Idea
  2. Shor's Algorithm 1994
  3. First Lab Demos 1998-2001
  4. D-Wave "Commercial" QC 2007
  5. D-Wave Sale to Lockheed 2011
  6. Google Buys D-Wave 2013
  7. IBM Cloud Access 2016
  8. Google Sycamore Claim 2019
  9. IBM 127-Qubit Chip 2021
  10. IBM 1121-Qubit Chip 2023
  11. Zero Commercial ROI by 2025
  12. Timeline Pattern Analysis
  13. "3-5 Years Away" Pattern
  14. 40 Years of Promises

Overly Optimistic Claims

  1. Catalog of Broken Promises
  2. D-Wave Exaggerated Claims
  3. Google Supremacy Overhype
  4. IBM Roadmap Revisions
  5. Startup Pitch Exaggeration
  6. Consultant Hype Reports
  7. McKinsey $450B Projection
  8. Media Amplification Effect
  9. Moving Goalposts Pattern
  10. Unfalsifiable Timelines
  11. Redefining Success
  12. Fusion Energy Parallel
  13. Flying Cars Parallel

The Cryptography Scare

  1. Public Key Encryption Basics
  2. Could QC Break Encryption?
  3. Massive Qubits Needed
  4. Post-Quantum Crypto Exists
  5. NIST Already Has Standards
  6. Harvest Now Decrypt Later
  7. Window Is Already Closing
  8. Crypto Threat Is Overstated

Economics of Quantum Computing

  1. Return on Investment
  2. Net Present Value
  3. Risk-Adjusted Returns
  4. Expected Value Framework
  5. Probability of Success
  6. Opportunity Cost
  7. Sunk Cost Trap
  8. Total $100B+ Invested
  9. Zero Revenue Generated
  10. VC Funding Frenzy
  11. Corporate R&D Burn Rate
  12. Government Funding Pressure
  13. Revenue Model Problem
  14. Who Pays for QC?
  15. Customer Demand Evidence
  16. No Paying Customers
  17. Classical Alternatives Cheaper
  18. Cost Per Computation
  19. Total Cost of Ownership

Investment Case Studies

  1. IonQ IPO and Stock Decline
  2. SPAC Risks in QC
  3. Rigetti Financial Struggles
  4. D-Wave Revenue Reality
  5. Market Valuation vs Revenue
  6. Comparable Company Analysis
  7. Exit Strategy Problem
  8. Acqui-Hire as Only Exit
  9. Venture Capital Loss Rates
  10. When to Cut Losses

Technology Assessment Frameworks

  1. Technology Readiness Levels
  2. TRL Scale Explained
  3. QC Stuck at TRL 2-3
  4. Technology Adoption Curves
  5. Crossing the Chasm
  6. Gartner Hype Cycle
  7. Peak of Inflated Expectations
  8. Trough of Disillusionment
  9. Technology Forecasting
  10. Base Rate of Tech Failure
  11. Prediction Track Records
  12. Science vs Engineering Gap
  13. Dot-Com Bubble Parallel
  14. Technology Bubble Dynamics

General Purpose Technology Analysis

  1. General Purpose Technology
  2. GPT Characteristics
  3. Must Be Broadly Applicable
  4. Must Improve Over Time
  5. Must Enable New Innovations
  6. Steam Engine as GPT
  7. Electricity as GPT
  8. Transistor as GPT
  9. Internet as GPT
  10. AI/ML as Emerging GPT
  11. QC Fails Every GPT Test
  12. QC Is Narrowly Applicable
  13. QC Cannot Replace Classical

Cognitive Biases in QC Investment

  1. Cognitive Bias Overview
  2. Sunk Cost Fallacy
  3. Confirmation Bias
  4. Anchoring Bias
  5. Bandwagon Effect
  6. Dunning-Kruger in QC
  7. Optimism Bias
  8. Authority Bias
  9. FOMO in QC Investment
  10. Survivorship Bias
  11. Narrative Fallacy
  12. Groupthink
  13. Motivated Reasoning
  14. Information Asymmetry
  15. Bias in Tech Forecasting
  16. How Biases Compound

Systems Thinking: Why Investment Continues

  1. Systems Thinking
  2. Causal Loop Diagrams
  3. Reinforcing Feedback Loop
  4. Balancing Feedback Loop
  5. Hype Reinforcement Loop
  6. Sunk Cost Escalation Loop
  7. Career Incentive Loop
  8. Geopolitical Arms Race Loop
  9. Missing Balancing Loop
  10. Leverage Points
  11. Self-Sustaining Hype Cycle
  12. Breaking the Hype Loop

Expert Skeptics

  1. Gil Kalai's Math Arguments
  2. Dyakonov's Physics Arguments
  3. Controlling 2^1000 Parameters
  4. Levin's Complexity Doubts
  5. Laughlin on Coherence Limits
  6. Goldreich's CS Perspective
  7. Skeptics Have No Funding Bias
  8. Proponents Have Funding Bias
  9. Why Skeptics Are Ignored

Ethics of QC Hype

  1. Ethics of QC Education
  2. PhD Career Risk in QC
  3. QC Job Market Reality
  4. Almost All Jobs Are R&D
  5. What If the Field Contracts?
  6. Transferable Skills Debate
  7. Professor Grant Conflicts
  8. String Theory Career Warning
  9. Cold Fusion Career Warning
  10. Student Advising Ethics
  11. Informed Consent for Careers
  12. Ethical Investment Duty
  13. Fiduciary Responsibility
  14. FOMO Drives Bad QC Decisions

Better Investment Alternatives

  1. Quantum Sensing
  2. Atomic Clocks
  3. Quantum Magnetometers
  4. Quantum Gravimeters
  5. Sensors Already Make Money
  6. Sensing Needs Few Qubits
  7. Quantum Key Distribution
  8. Risk-Adjusted QS Returns
  9. Classical AI Hardware
  10. Alternative Tech Investments
  11. Portfolio Diversification

Historical Investment Parallels

  1. Successful Physics Bets
  2. Transistor Investment Payoff
  3. Laser Investment Payoff
  4. Fiber Optics Payoff
  5. GPS Atomic Clock Payoff
  6. MRI Investment Payoff
  7. Failed Physics Bets
  8. Cold Fusion Losses
  9. Theranos Lessons
  10. Concorde Economics Failure
  11. Charismatic Founder Risk
  12. When Scientists Mislead

Physics Breakthroughs Required

  1. The 10 Required Breakthroughs
  2. Error Rates Must Drop 100x
  3. Need 1000x More Qubits
  4. Coherence Must Improve 100x
  5. Connectivity Must Improve
  6. Cryogenics Must Scale
  7. New Algorithms Needed
  8. Cost Must Drop Dramatically
  9. All Must Happen Together
  10. Joint Probability Problem
  11. Independent vs Coupled Risks
  12. Each Breakthrough Is Uncertain

Critical Thinking Toolkit

  1. Critical Thinking Skills
  2. Hype Detection Checklist
  3. Red Flags in Tech Claims
  4. How to Read a Press Release
  5. Science Journalism Problems
  6. Base Rate Reasoning
  7. Extraordinary Claims Rule
  8. Technology Due Diligence
  9. Risk Assessment Framework
  10. Bayesian Reasoning Basics
  11. Applying Skepticism Broadly
  12. Fusion Hype Comparison
  13. AGI Hype Comparison
  14. Autonomous Vehicle Comparison

Practical Skills and Outputs

  1. Writing an Executive Brief
  2. Conducting Red Team Analysis
  3. Building a Claims Tracker
  4. Evaluating a Pitch Deck
  5. Writing a Critical Review
  6. Portfolio Allocation Analysis
  7. National QC Strategy Critique
  8. Board-Level QC Questions
  9. Skeptical Inquiry Method
  10. Making Better Tech Bets