Bias Compounding Cascade

This MicroSim demonstrates how cognitive biases do not operate in isolation -- they compound. Each bias amplifies the distortion introduced by the previous one, creating a cascade effect that can push an investor's perceived probability of success far beyond what the evidence supports.

The simulation walks through five common biases that affect quantum computing investment decisions: anchoring bias, authority bias, the bandwagon effect, confirmation bias, and the sunk cost fallacy. Each stage shows its multiplier effect on the running belief level, with box height and color intensity growing to reflect the escalating distortion.

Bias Compounding Cascade MicroSim

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Press the Start button to watch biases accumulate one at a time. Use the Initial Hype Level slider to explore how a higher or lower starting claim changes the final compounded belief. Notice that even a modest starting estimate can balloon to an extreme figure once all five biases compound -- the total amplification factor exceeds 5x regardless of the starting value.