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title: Error Rate Gap: Quantum vs. Classical description: This MicroSim visualizes the enormous gap between current quantum computing error rates and the error rates achieved by classical hardware. A vertical logarithmic scale spanning twenty orders of image: /sims/error-rate-gap/error-rate-gap.png og:image: /sims/error-rate-gap/error-rate-gap.png

Error Rate Gap: Quantum vs. Classical

This MicroSim visualizes the enormous gap between current quantum computing error rates and the error rates achieved by classical hardware. A vertical logarithmic scale spanning twenty orders of magnitude reveals why uncorrected quantum computation cannot produce reliable results for large-scale problems.

Key levels are marked on the scale: the current best quantum gate error rate (around 10^-3), the quantum error correction threshold (10^-4), the range needed for useful uncorrected computation (10^-6 to 10^-10), and the error rates that classical silicon achieves routinely (10^-15 to 10^-18).

Error Rate Gap MicroSim

View Error Rate Gap MicroSim Fullscreen Edit using the p5.js editor

Use the improvement rate slider to explore how quickly the gap might close under different assumptions about annual progress. Even at optimistic improvement rates, reaching classical-level reliability takes decades to centuries, illustrating why the error rate gap is not merely an engineering problem but a fundamental barrier.

Key Takeaways

  • Current quantum error rates (~10^-3) are roughly a trillion times worse than classical hardware (~10^-15 to 10^-18).
  • The QEC threshold (~10^-4) is necessary before error correction can even begin to help, and current hardware barely approaches it.
  • Useful uncorrected computation requires error rates of 10^-6 or better, still a thousand-fold improvement over today's best.
  • Projected timelines show that even steady logarithmic improvement takes decades to close the gap, assuming improvement rates do not plateau.