Physics Bet Timeline

This interactive timeline tracks major quantum computing milestones alongside the bold predictions made by researchers, companies, and investors over three decades. Each prediction is matched against what actually happened, revealing a consistent pattern: every forecast of "useful quantum computing by year X" has so far failed to materialize.

Use the filter buttons to isolate milestones, predictions, or reality checks. Click any event to see its full description. Drag to pan and scroll to zoom.

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The timeline makes a striking pattern visible at a glance: technical milestones (blue) proceed incrementally, while optimistic predictions (orange) repeatedly cluster around dates that pass without delivering on their promises. The sole reality-check marker (red) at 2025 underscores that, after more than 30 years and tens of billions of dollars in investment, no commercial quantum advantage has been demonstrated.