Probability Waterfall

This MicroSim uses a waterfall-style bar chart to show how joint probability collapses when multiple independent breakthroughs are each required for quantum computing to become economically viable.

Each bar represents the cumulative probability remaining after one more breakthrough requirement is factored in. Because the probabilities multiply, even generous individual estimates (20-50% each) produce a vanishingly small joint probability when ten breakthroughs are all required.

Use the dropdown to switch between four scenarios ranging from pessimistic to proponent-level optimism, and observe that the final probability remains extremely low in every case.

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The logarithmic y-axis makes it possible to see the later bars, which would be invisible on a linear scale. The dashed annotation lines mark the thresholds below which rational capital allocation becomes difficult to justify.