Prediction Track Record Timeline

This interactive timeline tracks major quantum computing predictions alongside their actual outcomes. It reveals a systematic pattern of overoptimism that spans decades, sources, and claim types.

Use the category filters (Failed, Disputed, Delayed, Pending) to isolate predictions by outcome status. Use the source filters (Academia, Company, Consulting) to see which types of organizations have been most accurate — or most overoptimistic. Click any event on the timeline to view full details in the panel below.

View QC Prediction Tracker MicroSim Fullscreen

The timeline makes a striking pattern visible: nearly every prediction with a deadline that has already passed was either wrong or disputed. The remaining "pending" predictions follow the same pattern of ambitious claims from organizations with financial incentives to promote quantum computing. This does not prove future predictions will fail, but it establishes a track record that any careful investor or policymaker should weigh heavily.