Risk-Return Scatter Plot

This interactive scatter plot compares quantum and classical technology investments on two dimensions: investment risk (standard deviation of returns) and expected return. Bubble size reflects the total investment required. The dashed curve shows the efficient frontier, the theoretical boundary of optimal risk-return tradeoffs.

Technologies in the upper-left green region offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Technologies in the lower-right red region carry high risk with poor expected outcomes. Notice where quantum computing lands relative to the efficient frontier.

View Risk-Return Scatter Plot MicroSim Fullscreen

Hover over any bubble to see detailed metrics including probability of success, expected value, and total investment. Click a bubble to expand a detailed breakdown panel below the chart. Use the toggle button to show or hide the efficient frontier reference curve.

Key Takeaway

Quantum computing (the large red bubble) sits far below the efficient frontier with the highest risk and a deeply negative expected return. Meanwhile, proven quantum technologies like atomic clocks and magnetometers cluster in the attractive upper-left region, and classical AI hardware offers strong returns at moderate risk. This visualization makes the investment case starkly clear: the expected value of quantum computing investment is negative when you account for the physics risks honestly.