Success vs. Failure Patterns

View Success vs. Failure Patterns MicroSim Fullscreen

This grouped horizontal bar chart compares quantum computing against the average profiles of historically successful and failed technology predictions across six key criteria. Hover over any bar to see a brief explanation of each score. Use the toggle buttons to show or hide individual data series, and click "Show Gap Analysis" to overlay arrows illustrating how far quantum computing falls short of the success benchmark on each criterion.

About This MicroSim

Successful technologies like transistors and the internet scored high across all six dimensions: early practical demonstrations, continuous improvement, intermediate commercial products, scalable manufacturing, clear customer demand, and favorable scaling physics. Failed predictions like nuclear fusion power and flying cars consistently scored low on most dimensions. The chart invites students to judge which reference class quantum computing most closely resembles.