{
  "lastUpdated": "2026-08-09",
  "anchorPrice": 178,
  "anchorNote": "Prices are for the 8GB-RAM configuration of a representative current Raspberry Pi board (e.g. Pi 5 8GB / Pi 500 8GB), anchored to the ~$175-180 street price reported elsewhere in this appendix.",
  "years": ["2026", "2027", "2028", "2029", "2030"],
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "key": "optimistic",
      "label": "Optimistic",
      "color": "#2E7D32",
      "prices": [178, 192, 182, 155, 132],
      "reasons": [
        "Shortage conditions remain severe; component costs still reflect diverted DRAM capacity flowing to AI data centers.",
        "New DRAM fabrication lines reach initial production, but AI demand keeps growing just as fast, so prices peak before easing.",
        "Added capacity and slower AI demand growth begin to balance the market; prices level off near their high point.",
        "Supply now outpaces demand growth; manufacturers compete on price and Raspberry Pi reverses part of its 2025-2026 increases.",
        "Sustained new fab capacity keeps memory affordable again; 8GB configurations approach pre-shortage-adjusted pricing."
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "average",
      "label": "Average",
      "color": "#EF6C00",
      "prices": [178, 205, 222, 225, 215],
      "reasons": [
        "Shortage conditions remain severe; component costs still reflect diverted DRAM capacity flowing to AI data centers.",
        "AI infrastructure demand keeps outpacing new supply, pushing prices higher through the year.",
        "New capacity comes online, but only enough to slow the rate of increase rather than reverse it.",
        "Prices plateau near their peak as supply and demand roughly balance, but neither side gains ground.",
        "Elevated pricing persists as a \"new normal\"; modest easing appears but prices stay well above 2025 levels."
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "pessimistic",
      "label": "Pessimistic",
      "color": "#C2185B",
      "prices": [178, 218, 258, 300, 340],
      "reasons": [
        "Shortage conditions remain severe; component costs still reflect diverted DRAM capacity flowing to AI data centers.",
        "Producers keep prioritizing high-bandwidth memory for AI servers, leaving less capacity for LPDDR4 products like the Pi.",
        "Industry forecasts flagged 2028 as potentially more constrained than prior years; new fabs are absorbed by AI demand growth.",
        "AI infrastructure buildouts continue at scale; older memory generations stay squeezed between limited supply and steady classroom demand.",
        "No meaningful new LPDDR4 capacity has come online; prices for 8GB configurations remain near record highs."
      ]
    }
  ]
}