Sampling Distribution Concept Visualization
About This MicroSim
Welcome! Sylvia here, and let me tell you - this is one of my favorite visualizations because it shows the magic of statistics in action. You'll see how taking many samples and calculating a proportion from each one creates a beautiful, predictable pattern called a sampling distribution.
How to Use
- Population Panel: Shows 200 dots (green = success, blue = failure) with the true population proportion p = 0.60
- Sample Size Buttons: Choose n = 10, 25, 50, or 100 to see how sample size affects variability
- Take Samples: Click buttons to draw 1, 10, or 100 random samples
- Watch the Histogram: See how sample proportions cluster around the true proportion
- Compare: Notice how larger samples create tighter clustering (less spread)
Key Insights
- Each sample gives a different proportion (p-hat) due to sampling variability
- The sampling distribution shows the pattern of all possible sample proportions
- The mean of the sampling distribution equals the population proportion (p)
- Larger samples produce less variability in the sampling distribution
- As samples accumulate, the histogram becomes approximately normal (bell-shaped)
Lesson Plan
Learning Objective
Students will explain how individual samples combine to form a sampling distribution and demonstrate how the distribution of sample statistics differs from the distribution of individual data points (Bloom's Taxonomy: Understanding).
Pre-Activity Discussion
Ask students:
- "If we took a sample of 25 people and found 60% supported a policy, would a different sample of 25 give exactly 60% too?"
- "What do you think would happen if we could take hundreds of different samples?"
Guided Exploration
- Start with n = 25: Take one sample and observe where the proportion falls
- Take 10 more samples: Notice the variation - different samples give different results!
- Take 100 samples: Watch the histogram build and see the bell shape emerge
- Compare sample sizes: Reset and try n = 10 versus n = 100 - what changes?
Discussion Questions
- Why don't all sample proportions equal exactly 0.60?
- What happens to the spread of the histogram as sample size increases?
- Why is the center of the histogram close to 0.60?
- How does this help us understand the reliability of polls and surveys?
Connection to Theory
The simulation demonstrates that:
- The sampling distribution of p-hat is centered at p (unbiased estimator)
- The standard deviation of p-hat decreases as n increases
- The shape becomes approximately normal for large samples (CLT for proportions)
Sylvia Says
My tail's tingling - we're onto something! Notice how even though each sample is different, the overall pattern is remarkably predictable. That's the power of the sampling distribution - it tells us what to expect from our sample statistics!