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About This Course

I believe that forecasting the capabilities of AI is essential for strategic planning for any organization that manages knowledge. However, tracking AI progress is complex. This course is your guide to creating objective data-driven estimates of AI capabilities in the next five years. We believe that evidence-based projects can help strategy teams move away from the fear, uncertainty and doubts around AI and help them put in practical solutions that leverage the power of AI system.

My Journey with AI

I began my career as a technologist with a passion for helping organizations understand and harness emerging technologies. With decades of experience spanning semiconductor physics, enterprise architecture, and data management, I found myself increasingly drawn to the transformative potential of artificial intelligence—particularly its exponential growth patterns and implications for knowledge-based organizations.

In 2023, after witnessing the rapid evolution of large language models and generative AI, I recognized a critical gap: strategic decision-makers in educational institutions and knowledge management organizations lacked accessible, evidence-based frameworks for understanding AI's trajectory and planning effectively for its integration.

The pace of change was accelerating so rapidly that many leaders felt overwhelmed. I wanted to create a resource that could bridge the gap between technical concepts and practical strategy—something that would empower decision-makers with real data and clear thinking about exponential technologies.

Why Understanding Growth Patterns Matters

The visualization of Moore's Law that I developed (as seen in the course materials) serves as a powerful reminder that exponential growth is fundamentally different from the linear growth patterns humans naturally understand. While we intuitively grasp linear growth—adding the same amount each time period—exponential growth creates dramatic, often surprising changes as each period multiplies the previous value.

I've observed that this cognitive bias toward linear thinking creates significant strategic blind spots:

  • Organizations plan for incremental improvements when transformative change is imminent
  • Resources are allocated based on historical patterns rather than exponential trajectories
  • Opportunities for early adoption and competitive advantage are missed
  • Strategic risks from disruption are underestimated

My focus on visualizing and understanding these exponential patterns directly addresses these challenges. By helping staff members distinguish between linear and exponential growth, I aim to fundamentally change how organizations anticipate and plan for AI integration.

AI's Critical Role in Knowledge Work

For organizations that manage knowledge—schools, colleges, universities, and content-focused businesses—AI represents both an unprecedented opportunity and an existential challenge. The democratization of content creation through generative AI means that almost anyone can now produce high-quality text and images.

This transformation will profoundly impact educational institutions and businesses that operate in the knowledge economy. From curriculum development to research methodologies, from content creation to knowledge management, AI capabilities are reshaping the landscape of how we create, share, and utilize information.

I designed this course to help organizations navigate this transformation with confidence rather than fear. By tracking AI capabilities through objective benchmarks and understanding both the potential and limitations of current models, leaders can make informed decisions about where and how to implement AI solutions.

A Learning Experience I Designed for Strategic Impact

When creating this course, I prioritized making it accessible to a general audience with little prior knowledge of AI technologies. Each new term is carefully defined before use, ensuring that participants can build a solid foundation of understanding regardless of their technical background.

The three-day intensive format provides a comprehensive journey through AI's exponential growth patterns, starting with foundational concepts and historical perspective before exploring practical applications and strategic considerations. The course covers essential topics such as:

  • AI capability trajectories and acceleration patterns
  • Key benchmarks for measuring AI progress
  • The evolution of content generation capabilities
  • Approaches for integrating organizational knowledge with AI
  • Transformation strategies for educational institutions
  • Methods for establishing AI centers of excellence
  • Ethical considerations and responsible implementation

I've combined theoretical understanding with practical workshops, case studies, and strategic planning activities to ensure participants leave with actionable insights for their organizations.

Creating an Engaging and Useful Resource

I firmly believe that learning about emerging technologies should be both intellectually stimulating and practically useful. To make the course engaging, I've incorporated:

  1. Interactive visualizations: Dynamic simulations like the AI innovation timeline that allows participants to adjust between linear and logarithmic scales to see how perspective changes our understanding of technological progress.

  2. Hands-on workshops: Practical sessions where participants generate content using current AI tools, evaluate real-world applications, and draft preliminary strategies for their organizations.

  3. Thought-provoking case studies: Ethical explorations such as "Is it ethical to deny students access to superior AI tools?" that challenge participants to consider the full implications of AI integration.

  4. Diverse perspectives: Careful examination of different viewpoints on AI development, including skepticism about current approaches and alternative models for achieving higher-level capabilities.

A Course That Evolves with the Technology

Just as AI continues to develop at a remarkable pace, I'm committed to keeping this course current with the latest research, benchmarks, and strategic thinking. The collection of expert predictions on AGI timelines is regularly updated, the benchmarking data reflects the most recent model performances, and the strategic frameworks evolve to incorporate emerging best practices.

I see this course not as a static resource but as a living framework that helps organizations continually reassess and refine their AI strategies in response to new developments and opportunities.

My Vision for AI in Education and Knowledge Work

At its heart, this course reflects my optimistic but pragmatic vision for integrating AI into educational and knowledge-focused organizations. I believe that:

  • AI should enhance human capabilities rather than replace them
  • Organizations need structures for responsible AI governance and deployment
  • The most successful implementations will balance innovation with ethical considerations
  • Strategic advantage will come to those who understand both AI's potential and its limitations

My goal isn't to create AI evangelists. It's to foster informed, thoughtful leaders who can navigate the real opportunities and challenges of this technology revolution. When strategic decisions are grounded in evidence-based reasoning rather than hype or fear, organizations can truly harness AI's transformative potential while mitigating its risks.

Join Me on This Journey

Whether you're an educational administrator planning for the future of your institution, a knowledge management professional seeking to understand AI's impact on your field, or a strategic leader responsible for organizational innovation, this course offers a structured pathway to understanding and harnessing AI's exponential potential.

I invite you to approach this material with curiosity, critical thinking, and a willingness to challenge assumptions about how technology will shape the future of knowledge work and education.