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AGI Predicted Dates

Prompt

I am interested in when experts think that we will reach a level of AI called "Artificial General Intelligence" or AGI. Although I understand that the term is not precisely defined, it is a widely used benchmark date. Please gather everything you know about what date experts in AI will predict we will archive this level of intelligence. Summarize your results in a three column table with the following format:

Column 1: Name of person or organization Column 2: Expected year/month Column 3: Note on credibility of the person or organization

Here is a summary of predictions regarding the expected arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), compiled from various experts and organizations:

OpenAI 4o Response

Name or Organization Expected Year/Month Credibility Note
Ray Kurzweil 2029 Renowned futurist and Google AI researcher; has consistently predicted AGI by 2029 since 2005.
Daniel Kokotajlo / AI Futures Project 2027 Former OpenAI researcher leading the AI Futures Project; released "AI 2027" forecast predicting AGI by end of 2027.
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) 2026 CEO of AI safety-focused company Anthropic; predicts AGI by 2026, describing it as a system smarter than a Nobel laureate across many fields.
Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) 2025 or soon after CEO of OpenAI; believes AGI is imminent, possibly arriving in 2025 or shortly thereafter.
Geoffrey Hinton 5–20 years (from 2023) Pioneer in deep learning; revised his estimate in 2023 to AGI arriving within 5 to 20 years.
Demis Hassabis (DeepMind CEO) 2030–2035 CEO of Google DeepMind; forecasts AGI within 5 to 10 years as of 2025, emphasizing its potential for scientific discovery.
Shane Legg (DeepMind Co-founder) 2028 Co-founder of DeepMind; estimated a 50% chance of AGI by 2028.
AI Multiple (Survey of 8,590 predictions) 2040–2050 Aggregated analysis of expert predictions; estimates over 50% chance of AGI emergence between 2040 and 2050, with 90% likelihood by 2075.
Our World in Data (Multiple Surveys) 2060s Analysis across three surveys; more than half of experts think there's a 50% chance of human-level AI before some point in the 2060s.
AI Impacts (2022 Survey) 2040 (50% chance) Surveyed machine learning researchers; median estimate for AGI arrival is 2040 with a 50% probability.
Ari Allyn-Feuer & Ted Sanders (Academic Paper) <1% chance by 2043 Researchers argue that transformative AGI by 2043 is less than 1% likely, considering necessary advancements in software, hardware, and sociopolitical factors.
Yann LeCun (Meta Chief AI Scientist) Decades away Chief AI Scientist at Meta; believes AGI is not imminent and will evolve gradually over decades, not through a single breakthrough.
Andrew Ng (AI Researcher) Uncertain Prominent AI researcher; remains skeptical of near-term AGI and urges caution regarding claims of its imminence.

This table reflects a range of expert opinions on AGI timelines, highlighting the diversity of thought in the field.

OpenAI Deep Research Results

Great, I’ll gather recent (last 2–3 years) predictions about when AGI is expected to emerge, including input from top researchers, expert community surveys, think tanks, and reputable media and blog sources—with credibility notes for each.

I’ll return the results in a table with the name, predicted year or month, and a credibility assessment. I’ll get started and update you once it’s ready.

Recent Predictions Table AGI

This table only includes recent prediction (2022–2025)

  1. Only include recent predictions in the last 2-3 years.
  2. Include surveys of broader expert communities, think tanks, and forecasting platforms
  3. Include reputable media coverage and expert blog posts but justify why the source is reputable
Predictor (Person or Organization) Predicted Timeline for AGI Credibility / Role (Why this source is notable)
Sam Altman 2025 – Altman said he is “confident we know how to build AGI” and expects the first true AGI systems by 2025. CEO of OpenAI (the lab behind ChatGPT); prominent AI leader driving AGI development.
Elon Musk 2025–2026 – Musk predicted AI “smarter than the smartest human” will likely emerge by 2025 (within a year or two as of 2024). CEO of Tesla and founder of xAI; co-founder of OpenAI, known tech visionary (albeit often optimistic).
Dario Amodei 2026 – Believes AGI by 2026 is plausible, describing future AI as “a country of geniuses in a data center”. CEO of Anthropic (AI safety-focused startup); former OpenAI research director, respected in AI research.
Richard Socher ~2027 – Predicted AGI (by one definition, automating ~80% of jobs) in “three to five years” (i.e. around 2027–2028). Renowned NLP researcher; former Salesforce Chief Scientist and current CEO of You.com (AI search startup).
Ben Goertzel 2028 – Expects “human-level AGI within…three to five years” (as of late 2024), roughly by 2028, aligning with Ray Kurzweil’s 2029 forecast. CEO of SingularityNET and chairman of the AGI Society; AI researcher who helped popularize the term “AGI”.
Ray Kurzweil 2029 – Projects human-level AI by 2029, a prediction he first made in 2005 and still maintains as of 2024. (He also foresees a tech “Singularity” by 2045.) Noted futurist and Google engineer; former director of engineering at Google, author of The Singularity Is Near, with a track record of tech predictions.
Demis Hassabis 2030 – Estimates 5–10 years from now for AGI: in a 2023 interview he said AGI is likely “between five and 10 years away,” i.e. by \~2030. CEO and co-founder of Google DeepMind (leading AI research lab behind AlphaGo); 2023 Turing Award equivalent (Nobel in Chemistry for AlphaFold).
Geoffrey Hinton 2030s – Warned in 2023 that superhuman AI might be achieved “in as little as five years” (though with low confidence), giving a 5–20 year range for AGI. Turing Award–winning professor emeritus (University of Toronto) and ex-Google researcher; dubbed the “Godfather of AI” for pioneering deep learning.
Metaculus (Community Forecast) 2031 – The median prediction on Metaculus (a crowdsourced forecasting platform) expects AGI around 2031 for the first human-level AI system. Metaculus community (thousands of forecasters) aggregating expert predictions; known for calibrated tech forecasts.
Conjecture (2023 Staff Survey) Before 2035 – A 2023 survey of researchers at Conjecture (an AI research startup) found unanimous expectation of AGI by “before 2035”. Conjecture (AI alignment-focused research lab led by Connor Leahy); staff comprised of AI researchers/engineers actively working on AGI safety.
Shane Legg 2037 – Estimated an 80% probability of AGI by 2037 (within 13 years, as of 2023). Co-founder of DeepMind (acquired by Google); prominent AI researcher who has long contemplated AGI timelines.
Ajeya Cotra 2040 – Forecasted 50% chance of AGI by 2040, in an analysis updated in 2022 (significantly sooner than her 2020 estimate of 2050). Senior AI research analyst at Open Philanthropy (a think tank); known for rigorous modeling of AI progress (“biological anchors” report for AGI timelines).
AI Impacts (2023 Expert Survey) 2047 – The 2023 survey of 2,778 AI researchers by AI Impacts found a median guess of 50% chance by 2047 for human-level AI (down from 2059 in their 2022 survey). Large-scale academic survey (conducted by the nonprofit AI Impacts and researchers like Katja Grace); provides aggregated expert opinion from hundreds of AI academics.

References

  1. Ray Kurzweil predicts AGI by 2029 -- June 29, 2024 -- The Guardian -- Futurist and former Google engineer known for accurate tech trend forecasting.

  2. Sam Altman: Confident We Know How to Build AGI -- Nov 2024 -- Business Insider -- OpenAI CEO outlining near-term expectations for AGI.

  3. Elon Musk Says Superintelligent AI Could Arrive in 2025 -- Apr 2024 -- Business Insider -- Known for optimistic timelines; discusses AGI's implications.

  4. Dario Amodei Says AGI Might Come by 2026 -- Nov 2024 -- Business Insider -- CEO of Anthropic and former OpenAI research director.

  5. Ben Goertzel Aligns with Kurzweil on AGI Timeline -- Mar 2024 -- Interesting Engineering -- AGI researcher and founder of SingularityNET.

  6. Richard Socher Predicts AGI by 2027--2028 -- Apr 12, 2023 -- TIME Magazine -- Renowned NLP researcher and You.com CEO.

  7. Demis Hassabis Says AGI Likely by 2030--2035 -- Apr 2025 -- TIME Magazine -- DeepMind CEO and AI pioneer.

  8. Geoffrey Hinton Warns AGI Could Be Just 5--20 Years Away -- Jul 2023 -- Business Insider -- Turing Award winner and deep learning pioneer.

  9. Metaculus Forecast: AGI by 2031 -- Ongoing (last updated 2025) -- Metaculus -- Crowdsourced forecasting platform with expert users.

  10. Conjecture Survey: AGI Before 2035 -- Dec 2023 -- LessWrong -- Independent safety-oriented research lab with internal staff polling.

  11. Shane Legg: 80% Chance of AGI by 2037 -- Dec 2023 -- LessWrong -- DeepMind cofounder cited in internal AGI survey discussions.

  12. Ajeya Cotra: 50% Chance of AGI by 2040 -- Updated 2022 -- Open Philanthropy -- Think tank researcher with widely cited AGI modeling framework.

  13. AI Impacts 2023 Survey: Median AGI Arrival by 2047 -- Oct 2023 -- AI Impacts -- Academic nonprofit aggregating views of nearly 3,000 AI researchers.

Would you like me to embed these links directly into the prediction table for clarity?

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