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Assumption Ledger Sorter

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About This MicroSim

Every business idea starts out built entirely from assumptions. The skill this MicroSim practices is telling the difference between a statement someone has actually tested and one that only sounds true.

Learners work through six cards from Jordan's ledger, the running list of beliefs and findings behind Jordan's mobile dog-grooming idea. For each card they choose Assumption or Validated Learning. The feedback is immediate:

  • A correct answer flashes green; an incorrect answer flashes amber.
  • The correct category is stamped on the card.
  • A one-sentence explanation says why, so a wrong answer still teaches something.

Some cards are deliberately tricky. "2 of 5 neighbors said the price was too high" is validated learning even though it is bad news, and "A mobile service is obviously more convenient" is an assumption even though it sounds reasonable.

How to Use

  1. Read the statement on the card.
  2. Click Assumption or Validated Learning.
  3. Read the feedback, then click Next Card.
  4. After card 6, click See Results for your score and a review of any cards you missed.
  5. Click Try Again to sort the same six cards in a new, shuffled order.

The progress bar across the top turns green or amber for each card as you go. Nothing is saved; the score lasts only for the current session.

Iframe Embed Code

You can add this MicroSim to any web page by adding this to your HTML:

<iframe src="https://dmccreary.github.io/eight-hour-entrepreneur/sims/assumption-ledger-sorter/main.html"
        height="482px"
        width="100%"
        scrolling="no"></iframe>

Lesson Plan

Audience

Adult early-stage entrepreneurs and aspiring founders in a live virtual cohort.

Learning Objective

Given short statements from Jordan's dog-grooming-van idea, participants will classify each one as an Assumption (untested) or Validated Learning (tested), applying the chapter's definitions to concrete cases.

Bloom Level: Apply (L3). Bloom Verb: classify.

Duration

5-10 minutes

Prerequisites

  • Chapter 1 reading on assumptions and validated learning

Activities

  1. Solo sort (4 min): Each participant sorts all six cards and notes their score.
  2. Debrief the tricky cards (3 min): As a group, discuss cards 4 and 5. Why is bad news still validated learning? Why does "obviously" signal an untested belief?
  3. Sort your own ledger (3 min): Each participant writes three statements about their own idea and labels each one, asking "how do I know this?" for every line.

Assessment

  • Did the participant classify at least 5 of 6 cards correctly on a second attempt?
  • Can the participant explain why a customer's "no" counts as validated learning?
  • Can the participant rewrite one of their own assumptions as a test they could run this week?

References

  1. Lean startup - Wikipedia - Defines validated learning, the category that real customer evidence falls into.
  2. Hypothesis - Wikipedia - An assumption is a business hypothesis that has not been tested yet.
  3. Confirmation bias - Wikipedia - Why statements that "sound obviously true" are easy to mistake for evidence.
  4. The Mom Test - Rob Fitzpatrick - How to gather customer feedback that counts as real evidence instead of polite opinion.