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Sprint Burndown Chart (Ideal vs Actual)

Run the Sprint Burndown Chart Fullscreen

About This MicroSim

This MicroSim shows a 10-day sprint that missed its goal — and then explains why. The dashed slate-gray line is the ideal burndown (a perfectly linear 50→0 over 10 days). The magenta line is the actual burndown, complete with the bumps real teams encounter:

  • Day 3-4 plateau — the API authentication story got blocked on a security review
  • Day 5 sharp drop — unblocked, the team cleared 12 points in a single day
  • Day 7 upward tick — the product owner added a "small" 5-point story mid-sprint
  • Day 10 ending at 8 points — sprint goal missed

Below the burndown is a velocity history for the team's last six sprints with a trendline. Click Show Velocity Forecast to overlay a velocity-based projection for the next sprint — a far more honest commitment than the ideal line.

How to Use

  1. Hover any point on the actual line to see what happened that day
  2. Click Show Velocity Forecast to overlay the velocity-based forecast for the next sprint
  3. Compare the actual line against the velocity history below — does the team's commitment match its capacity?

Embedding This MicroSim

You can include this MicroSim on your website using the following iframe:

<iframe src="https://dmccreary.github.io/information-systems/sims/sprint-burndown-chart/main.html"
        height="722px" width="100%" scrolling="no"></iframe>

Lesson Plan

Learning Objectives

By the end of this activity, students will be able to:

  1. Read a burndown chart and distinguish ideal from actual progress
  2. Identify scope-change events, blockers, and breakthroughs from the chart's shape
  3. Calculate average team velocity from sprint history
  4. Forecast a realistic next-sprint commitment using velocity rather than aspiration

Suggested Activities

  1. Pattern Reading (10 min) — Show the burndown without annotations. Have students predict which day a blocker hit and which day scope was added.
  2. Velocity Math (10 min) — Compute the team's average velocity across the six historical sprints. Compare against the 50-point commitment.
  3. Re-Plan the Sprint (15 min) — Given the velocity forecast, what's a realistic story-point target for Sprint 28? Justify in two sentences.
  4. Spot the Anti-Pattern (10 min) — Identify the scope-creep moment on Day 7 and draft a one-paragraph response the team could give to the product owner.

Assessment

  • Quiz: Match each shape (plateau, sharp drop, upward tick) to its likely cause
  • Short answer: "Why is the velocity forecast a more honest commitment than the ideal line?"
  • Essay: "If you were the scrum master in Sprint 27, what one change would you advocate for Sprint 28?"

References

  • Schwaber, K. & Sutherland, J. (2020). The Scrum Guide.
  • Cohn, M. (2005). Agile Estimating and Planning.
  • Atlassian — Burndown Charts